Gold opened the new week on the back foot. The precious metal slipped to roughly $4,150 per ounce during Monday’s Asian session and briefly dipped under the $4,140 mark for the first time in around two months. That also takes it below the $4,235 low it set immediately after the Fed’s September rate hike.
The message from the market is simple: as long as the Federal Reserve sounds ready to keep raising rates, and the US Dollar stays firm, gold will struggle to attract buyers — even with the US–Iran conflict still unresolved.
🏛️ Fed Officials Keep the Door Open to More Hikes
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Since then, a string of policymakers has made it clear that the job may not be finished:
- Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed): said on Friday that inflation risks are still elevated and that policy should stay restrictive, adding that she is concerned inflation expectations could worsen.
- Michael Barr (Fed Governor): indicated that more policy adjustments will probably be needed to bring inflation back under control.
- Tom Barkin and Susan Collins: both supported the September hike, pointing to persistent price pressures.
This “higher-for-longer” tone matters for gold because the metal pays no interest. When rates rise, cash and bonds offer a better return, and the cost of holding gold goes up.
🥇 Gold
🏛️ Fed Outlook
💵 US Dollar & Yields
⚫ Silver & Oil
🛢 Why Oil Is Hurting Gold This Time
Normally, Middle East tension supports gold as a safe haven. Right now, it is doing the opposite. The ongoing US–Iran standoff is keeping oil prices elevated, and higher energy costs feed directly into inflation. That strengthens the case for more Fed tightening, which lifts yields and the Dollar — both negatives for bullion.
Analysts at OCBC noted that gold had already slipped below $4,150 briefly before this latest drop, as firm US data and hawkish Fed comments pushed October hike odds above 70%. They see oil and interest rates as the two main swing factors: a pullback in energy prices or the Dollar could help gold stabilise, while a further rise in yields would keep the pressure on. OANDA’s Kelvin Wong made a similar point — the more hawkish the Fed looks, the stronger the Dollar and the weaker gold.
⚠️ The key shift: Geopolitical risk is no longer enough to support gold on its own. As long as that risk shows up through higher oil and higher inflation, the Fed channel dominates — and the Fed channel is currently bearish for bullion.
📊 Technical Picture: Sellers in Control Below $4,300
On the daily chart, gold is trading below its 100-day simple moving average and the middle Bollinger Band, both of which point to a negative short-term trend. Price is sitting just above the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI is around 40 — weak momentum, but not yet oversold, which means there is still room for further downside before a technical bounce becomes likely.
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Upper Bollinger Band | $4,462 | Major resistance |
| Middle Bollinger Band | ~$4,340 | Resistance |
| 100-day SMA | ~$4,300 | First resistance |
| Post-FOMC low | $4,235 | Broken |
| Lower Bollinger Band | ~$4,218 | Immediate support |
| Psychological level | $4,200 | Key support |
| RSI (14, daily) | ~40 | Weak, not oversold |
Our View: $4,150 Is the Line That Matters This Week
The $4,200 level is now the most important battleground for gold. It is both a round-number support and sits just below the lower Bollinger Band. A daily close beneath it would confirm the break and could invite another leg lower, as the technical structure offers little support in between.
For any recovery to gain traction, gold would first need to reclaim the 100-day SMA near $4,300. Until then, rallies are more likely to be met by sellers, especially while October hike odds remain above 70%.
The wildcard is this week’s US jobs report. A softer print could trim rate-hike bets, ease the Dollar and give gold room to bounce. A strong print would likely lock in expectations for an October hike and extend the pressure.
Three Scenarios for Gold This Week
Rebound Softer data, Dollar eases
Weaker US jobs data or lower oil prices cool rate-hike expectations. Gold holds $4,150 and recovers toward the $4,300 resistance zone.
Base case Range between $4,150 and $4,300
Fed speakers stay hawkish but data is mixed. Gold stabilises above $4,200 but struggles to reclaim the 100-day SMA.
Further losses Strong NFP, yields climb
A strong jobs report and rising yields cement October hike bets. A daily close below $4,200 confirms the breakdown and opens the way to deeper losses.
📅 What to Watch This Week
📌 Achiever Global Markets Watch: With gold testing a major psychological level ahead of the US jobs report, volatility in XAU/USD, XAG/USD and USD pairs is likely to increase this week. Traders should be mindful of position sizing around data releases.
📈 Bottom Line — Achiever Global Markets
Gold is being driven by one dominant force: a Fed that is signalling more hikes, backed by a firm Dollar and high yields. Middle East risk is adding to that pressure through oil rather than helping gold as a safe haven. Holding $4,200 is critical — a sustained break lower would keep the bearish trend in place, while a recovery above $4,300 is needed to change the picture.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market data as of the early Asian session on 28 September 2026; levels may differ slightly between data providers.